Over the past few days, I’ve upload the Ohio Voter database to the Toledo Tea Party web site and have been crunching the data in order to better serve our NW Ohio Conservative Coalition constituents.
I was able to do a county by county analysis (see Excel spreadsheet) However, there were 5 counties that had historical data problems, so I marked their data as ERROR.
During the analysis of the data, I found several results that I find extremely interesting. and once again, support the notion that voters are tired of the same ole garbage, from both parties.
In 2008, the Democrat turnout was 2 to 1 over the Republicans, in 2016, this was almost just the opposite, Republicans turned out substantial greater than Democrats.
The Party crossover vote was also substantial. Those who had previously pulled Democrat ballots decided to pull a Republican ballot, Democrats switched parties by a factor of 7 to 1 over Republicans pulling a Democrat ballot.
New voters, With the exception of the Metropolitan counties (Cuyahoga, Franklin, Lucas) new voters pulled Republican ballots by a factor of 3 to 1.
Several notes that need to be considered, Gov Kasich had a hometown advantage This fact kept the two leading candidates, Trump and Cruz, from actively campaigning in Ohio.
There were several active “Anti Trump” infiltration’s into Ohio that was telling people to vote for Kasich to keep Trump from winning Ohio. I’m not sure of the impact these types of campaigns had. I believe they were directed more at Republicans who vote in primaries than random Democrats who may cross over..
In order to do valid comparisons, I chose to compare the 2016 primary with the 2008 primary. In both those races, there were strong primary candidates in both the Democrat and Republican parties.
2008 Primary voters
Democrat > 1,956,523
Republican > 957,309
2016 Primary voters
Democrat > 1,150,660
Republican > 1,874,275
2016 Party Cross overs – These people voted in one of the previous primaries for one party, but changed parties for the 2016 primary.
Democrat > 61,727
Republican > 455,836
2016 New registrations – These people registered after Jan 1st 2016 and voted in the March primary
Democrat > 45,812
Republican > 46,966
ANALYSIS – CLICK HERE to download spreadsheet
NOTE 1 – Belmont, Ottawa, Sandusky, and Wyandot counties have incorrect data reporting for the Primary of 2008 and cannot be used when making comparisons to 2008 election.
NOTE 2 – Hamilton county has incorrect (unreported) data for the 2016 primary, so its data cannot be used to comparisons
Looking at the spreadsheet, there are three spread sheets, One is general and includes both parties, the other two are specifically ffor analysis of the two parties. Note that the DEM analysis does not include any 2013 primary comparisons, as that Democrat primary was uncontested.
Shows the Democrat and Republican results for all 88 counties for the 08,10,12,14, and 16 Primaries.
The Crossover columns show the number of voters who had previously voted in one party, but changed parties for the 2016 election.
The Crossover Percentage shows how much of and impact these voters had on the overall vote in the primary.
New voters show the number of voters who registered after Jan 1st, 2016, and voted in the primary. The Percentage shows how much impact these new voters had on the results.